Manuscript – CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, NEWS & SOLUTIONS

Climate Change: An Alternative Theory

By Joseph Otieno Oruoch

About This Manuscript

This manuscript presents an alternative theory of climate change based on the observation that the Earth is a source of heat.Variations in the amount of heat released from the Earth’s interior, rather than changes in solar activity or greenhouse gases, are argued to be the primary drivers of global warming and cooling.

The study draws from natural observations, historical records and scientific principles to explain climate patterns, volcanic activity, ice ages and other related phenomena.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW

Purpose

To investigate the real causes of climate change through natural observations and scientific reasoning

Key Theory

More heat from the mantle onto earth's surface through the crust causes global warming while less heat onto the surface causes global cooling.

Importance

Understanding these natural processes is vital for preparing for future climate risks and protecting our planet

Key Observations

Mount Blanc research finding

In June 2019, international television channel France 24 repeatedly aired through one of its features ‘France in Focus’, research findings on snow decline on Mount Blanc. It reported that using instruments which were immersed 10 metres below the surface of the mountain, researchers established that heat from the inner earth had increased by 1.45°C over a period of 12 years and this contributed to the mountain’s rapid snow meltdown. This is evidence that heat from inside the planet is impacting on the surface and the heat is increasing.

Solar activity and global warming

Many studies carried out in the recent past to establish whether there has been any change in solar activity to which climate change can be attributed have revealed two findings; one is that the impact of solar energy on world’s climate is negligible and two is that “Sun’s energy output has not changed over the past 30 years and recent warming observed on Earth cannot be attributed to changes in Sun activity.” (The Sun and Climate) There has been some argument that greenhouse gases trap solar energy thereby causing global warming. But such an argument is not scientific since no scientific explanation or evidence has been provided to prove that some gases have molecular structures which cause them to act like valves by allowing heat to move in one direction and not the other.

Lapse rate

This is the common principle that ‘the higher you go the cooler it becomes’ and vice versa. Digging down the crust reveals that temperatures increase as one goes down with research in one place indicating an increase of 20°C per kilometre (Ramsey et all, 1978, 28) and another an increase of 30°C per kilometre (Francis 1978). As is the case with all sources of heat, it is clear that lapse rate is another case of higher temperatures closer to fire and cooler temperatures away from it. Variations in rates of temperature changes can also be attributed to varying thickness of the crust otherwise manifested in altitudes.

Altitudes and climates

Global climatic patterns are determined by latitudes which is why it is generally colder towards the poles but warmer towards the tropics and Equator. But along the same latitudes, say the tropics or even the Equator, we still find that places with higher altitudes i.e. the highlands, experience cooler temperatures while those with lower altitudes experience warmer temperatures. Coastal areas which lie just above the sea level are generally warmer. Hot deserts also happen to be places with very low altitudes even though high mountains rising above such deserts experience cooler climatic conditions and Atlas Mountains at the edge of the Sahara Desert is a classic example.

Earth's Structure

The earth has three main layers namely; crust, mantle and the core. For academic purposes the layers are divided into Mohorovicic discontinuity and Gutenberg discontinuity for the outer part of the mantle and its inner part respectively. The core is also divided into outer and inner core. But our interest is not in the number of layers or their names but temperature trends. Temperatures at the inner core are estimated to range between 5000 and 6000°C. Outer core’s temperatures range between 4000 and 5000°C (360° Atlas For Secondary Schools, 10) “Mantle temperatures range from approximately 200°C at the upper boundary with the crust to approximately 4000°C at the core – mantle boundary.” Google. The crust constitutes just one per cent of the earth’s mass. It is evident from the foregoing that the planet holds a lot of heat within and that the intensity of the heat diminishes with increasing distance from the centre.

Wind and ocean currents

The occurrence of air movements (wind) and ocean currents is another pointer to heating from below. Warm air ascends while cold air descends and so is water (liquids). When water is heated from above, then only upper layer is warmed while bottom water remains cold since the warm water at the top is lighter. In such an arrangement there are no currents and water at the bottom remains calm even when the top is boiling. This concept also applies to air. If it was only the sun heating air from above then upper atmospheric air would remain warmer than lower atmospheric air and there would be no turbulence or wind for that matter. Similarly, ocean currents would not occur as warm water would remain at the top while cold water remains below. It is only heating from below that would occasion movements.

Contents of inner earth

Some understanding of the contents of inner earth may be necessary at this point. One interesting observation is by World Resources 1990-91 which recorded that “analysis of gas bubbles trapped in ice deposited over the past 160,000 years reveals that a warming of the global climate and a rise in CO₂ and CH₄ coincide. Conversely, lower atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ levels coincide with global cooling.” (Hammond et al 1990, 19) May be a question one would ask is whether greenhouse gases are just symptoms of climate change and not its causes.

The United States Geological Survey did some study on contents of volcanic eruptions and noted that “The concentrations of different volcanic gases can vary considerably from one volcano to the next. Water vapor is typically the most abundant volcanic gas, followed by carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide.” (USGS 1997) This was only an analysis of volcanic gases but lava contains a mixture of every mineral substances that we have on the surface.

Simultaneous volcanic eruptions

Between December 2009 and January 2010, the world media focused its attention on a volcanic mountain in the Philippines which showed increased signs of eruption but cooled off after several weeks without violent eruption. During the same period volcanic eruption occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It was also reported that another volcano erupted in Colombia. These eruptions coincided with a period of extremely cold winter in the northern hemisphere creating conditions only comparable to those witnessed several decades earlier. The southern hemisphere experienced a very wet summer than was often the case with a lot of rainfall in the tropics and southern temperate zone.

Between January and February 2010, Japanese coast guards captured on camera what appeared to be a submarine volcanic eruption. There were other volcanic eruptions in Iceland between March and April 2010. In May there were simultaneous volcanic eruptions in Ecuador and Guatemala. In August same 2010, a volcano erupted in Indonesia followed by another eruption from a different mountain in the same country from November to early December. Another volcano also erupted in Ecuador in December 2010.

These recent simultaneous volcanic eruptions were not the first. An American geologist, P.R. Vogt “suggested that there are likely to have been episodes in the earth’s history of particularly intense volcanism all over the world, separated by quieter intervals, and he produced evidence to show that over geological history, the rates of volcanic discharge in the area of Iceland have followed broadly similar trends to those of Hawaii, on the other side of the planet” (Francis 1978, 266-7).

Global cooling and volcanic eruptions

Global cooling has been experienced after simultaneous volcanic eruptions and/or after single massive eruptions. In observation 8 above, cooler global temperatures were witnessed after a series of volcanic eruptions in the year 2010. Wikipedia also records that “Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5°C (0.9°F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year without a Summer.”

In yet another instance, it is recorded that “while most of the world was reveling in the gloriously-hued sunsets that followed the Krakatoa eruption, astronomers at the Montpelier observatory in the south of France were recording a rather more sinister effect. The radiant energy from the sun reaching their recording instruments at ground level dropped by about 20 per cent when the pall of dust first arrived over Europe, and their readings remained about 10 per cent below normal for many months.” (Francis 1978, 263) So the only activity or happening which has been observed to result in global cooling is volcanic eruptions. If greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming and they are emitted in huge quantities during eruptions, how comes global cooling occurs after eruptions?

Ice ages

Ice ages have punctuated the history of planet earth. “Three major glacial periods are known, separated from each other by long periods of geological time when the world appears to have had a more or less uniformly temperate climate.” (Chambers’s Encyclopedia 1973, 357). Oscillation of global temperatures between glacial periods and temperate climates implies existence of natural historical forces driving the process.

Extinction of species

Animal species have become extinct for unexplained reasons over time. As one writer observes, “over the course of geological history there have been a number of clearly-defined episodes of large-scale faunal extinctions, when numbers of animal species have suddenly, and for no apparent reason, died out. Much the best-known example of this is the dinosaurs. These reptiles were the predominant group of land animals throughout the whole Mesozoic period from about 225 million years ago to sixty million years ago.” (Francis 1978, 267)

Ice ages have occurred in the past and animal species have become extinct. Why do we think history cannot repeat itself?

From Pangaea to many continents

After an assertion that initially appeared odd by Alfred Wegener that the planet’s continents were once together but moved apart over time, and after the discovery of mid-oceanic ridges which corroborated Wegener’s assertion, plus the fact that tectonic plates are constantly drifting apart, it is reasonable to suggest that more continents could still be formed. From observations 8 and 9, it can be inferred that the formation of such continent(s) would result in a major ice age because substantial amounts of heat may escape from the inner earth once it cracks open in addition to water which would rush in to fill the newly created basin(s) causing further cooling.